So the reduction of hydroxyl radicals is like another "termination shock" associated with reduced fossil fuel combustion, along with the reduction of the combustion pollution that maintains higher cloud albedo. Oh, dear.
Every time I read about the methane spike and the reason during COVID, I can't help but shiver at the thought of an even greater spike when physical shortages, because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will cause an even larger decrease in "human activity". It's getting increasingly harder to not sense a great danger that is right around the corner :-/
In 2020, when the New Zealand climate change commission made it's first report to advise the government on climate change policy, the didn't want to make strong recommendations on our CH4 emissions because over 90% of those come from our livestock farming industry, which is treated like the proverbial "holy cow"...
Using the differential equations for a constant CH4 influx versus atmospheric decay it is easy to calculate the resulting equilibrium amount of CH4 airborne. Our ruminant herd size is more or less stable, so constant influx is a reasonable assumption. For NZ that's 1.4 MT per year. Assuming a 10 year "half life time" of CH4, one gets a resulting equilibrium amount airborne at all times of about 10 x 1.4 = 14 MT of CH4 airborne constantly.
Assuming a factor 100 of the CH4 climate forcing compared to CO2, those 14 MT of CH4 out country keeps airborne is the equivalent of 45 years of cumulative CO2 emissions of the entire rest of the country at 2018 levels....
Meghane is a significant greenhouse gas and globally responsible for at least 1/3 of the climate forcing we see.
Eliot's words: "In other words, according to this study, the 2020-2023 spike was not a result of more methane being emitted. It wasn’t fracking, or animal agriculture, or ESAS or the Siberian permafrost methane bomb. Instead, it was an artifact of the increased atmospheric lifetime of methane. Fewer hydroxyl radicals."
Actually, the spike that likely will continue rising is all of the above. High concentrations of methane in the atmosphere consume hydroxyl radicals faster than they are produced, thus increasing the lifetime of the methane, consuming radicals all the faster.... and so on. Higher temperatures from methane's greenhouse effect increase the heat driving the permafrost and continental shelves' bombs.... And this is when we are looking down the barrel of a Godzilla El Niño projected to be the hottest in many centuries. For pointers to readings, see Climate Sentinel News (https://voteclimateone.org.au/climate-sentinel-news/?_climate_sentinel_news=Hothouse%20Hell).
By 2024, I could see that the die was cast and basically stopped writing about it because it was all too depressing. The fact that the current AI-led technological singularity is now racing ahead of the Climate Collapse raises my hope again.....
For someone who claims not to be a climate scientist, the professor does a great job describing and defining what's going on over our heads.
ThankU Professor Jacobson
So the reduction of hydroxyl radicals is like another "termination shock" associated with reduced fossil fuel combustion, along with the reduction of the combustion pollution that maintains higher cloud albedo. Oh, dear.
Every time I read about the methane spike and the reason during COVID, I can't help but shiver at the thought of an even greater spike when physical shortages, because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will cause an even larger decrease in "human activity". It's getting increasingly harder to not sense a great danger that is right around the corner :-/
In 2020, when the New Zealand climate change commission made it's first report to advise the government on climate change policy, the didn't want to make strong recommendations on our CH4 emissions because over 90% of those come from our livestock farming industry, which is treated like the proverbial "holy cow"...
Using the differential equations for a constant CH4 influx versus atmospheric decay it is easy to calculate the resulting equilibrium amount of CH4 airborne. Our ruminant herd size is more or less stable, so constant influx is a reasonable assumption. For NZ that's 1.4 MT per year. Assuming a 10 year "half life time" of CH4, one gets a resulting equilibrium amount airborne at all times of about 10 x 1.4 = 14 MT of CH4 airborne constantly.
Assuming a factor 100 of the CH4 climate forcing compared to CO2, those 14 MT of CH4 out country keeps airborne is the equivalent of 45 years of cumulative CO2 emissions of the entire rest of the country at 2018 levels....
Meghane is a significant greenhouse gas and globally responsible for at least 1/3 of the climate forcing we see.
Great analysis. I concur with you.
Eliot's words: "In other words, according to this study, the 2020-2023 spike was not a result of more methane being emitted. It wasn’t fracking, or animal agriculture, or ESAS or the Siberian permafrost methane bomb. Instead, it was an artifact of the increased atmospheric lifetime of methane. Fewer hydroxyl radicals."
Actually, the spike that likely will continue rising is all of the above. High concentrations of methane in the atmosphere consume hydroxyl radicals faster than they are produced, thus increasing the lifetime of the methane, consuming radicals all the faster.... and so on. Higher temperatures from methane's greenhouse effect increase the heat driving the permafrost and continental shelves' bombs.... And this is when we are looking down the barrel of a Godzilla El Niño projected to be the hottest in many centuries. For pointers to readings, see Climate Sentinel News (https://voteclimateone.org.au/climate-sentinel-news/?_climate_sentinel_news=Hothouse%20Hell).
By 2024, I could see that the die was cast and basically stopped writing about it because it was all too depressing. The fact that the current AI-led technological singularity is now racing ahead of the Climate Collapse raises my hope again.....
While the article concentrated on methane (CH4), it began by mentioning the current value of CO2. The Arctic News just reported that on May 1, 2026 the CO2 concentration recorded by NOAA at Mauna Loa was 433.95 ppm! https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/05/carbon-dioxide-highest-in-millions-of-years-update.html
A daily value is a good way to scare someone, but not especially relevant. We will see what May’s average is at the beginning of June.
It looks like I need not be too concerned about cancer remission anymore. That’s something. Thank you, Elliot.